Manic-depressive lite. That’s my psychology today. I scanned my reads for small business news this morning. And it was a roller-coaster of headlines and data:
25% of us have considered starting our own business. That’s either a sign of hope, desperation or frustration.
- Hope for the future and our ability to create a desirable one;
- Frustration at the futility of working where we have no future
Searches for unemployment benefits down, real estate deals up. As a contemporaneous predictor, predicting the present through search queries has been a pretty good predictor of initial (jobless) claims, said Hal Varian, Google’s chief economist. He’s got a point. Google Knows All. And that’s because we tell Google all.
White House says 1 million jobs were saved. I’m nervous about quoting anything from an AP link. I’m nervous about even saying why...You’ll have to read the details.
Economists say we’re recovering, but job outlook is bleak. Private economists polled for the Blue Chip Economic Indicators September survey say the unemployment rate will reach at least 10 percent in early 2010 and "recede from that level only grudgingly over the second half of the year". Ok. You’re some of the same economists who didn’t see this recession coming....So, which part of this will prove to be inaccurate.
White House says progress is made, but not enough, to slow job losses. Ok. I'm glad you're not satisfied with saving 1 million jobs as the unemployment rate is still rising.
Monster US Job Index Soars in August They reported the biggest jump since 2005. Ok. That’s good news, right? Yes and no. The jump was big...on a percentage basis. But that’s like saying moving from 1 to 2 is a jump of 100%. The jump with Monster's Job Index was from 114 to 121. A year ago, this index was at 151.
Small Business Now Top Source of Layoffs. Last month, for the first time this decade, small businesses laid off more workers than either mid-size or large employers, according to ADP’s national unemployment report released Wednesday.
That’s definitely a sign of neither job creation nor economic recovery. Job recovery in a recession starts with small business and those jobs and their incomes and purchases create the recovery. But, then we’re in turbulent time. Who knew bringing competition to an oligopolistic industry would label you a socialist?
Conclusion?
Any good news is just that: good news. A few months ago, there was none. These few hints, few that they are, show me the trend line may not be moving high and to the right. But it’s not moving down and to the right either. For today, that’s good news.